Calibration in goal setting: Examining the nature of judgments of confidence

This study examined the nature of confidence judgments associated with personal goal setting during undergraduate studying episodes. Calibration was examined between paired judgments of confidence and self-evaluations of goal attainment made over nine consecutive weeks. Participants were 170 students enrolled in a first-year undergraduate course designed to promote self-regulated learning. Learners completed nine weekly Personal Planning Tools in which they (a) set a personal academic goal for university studying in the upcoming week, (b) judged their confidence for attaining that goal (JOC), and (c) self-evaluated their success in attaining that goal after the study episode. Multilevel linear modeling indicated that (a) JOCs were better calibrated with self-evaluations of current goal attainment than past goal attainment, (b) calibration did not improve over the nine weeks, but learners did become less overconfident, and (c) learners who were performing better at university tended to be better calibrated.

► Confidence judgments were calibrated with self-evaluations of goal attainment. ► Calibration was better with self-evaluations of current rather than past goal attainment. ► Calibration did not improve over time, but learners became less overconfident. ► Learners with higher term GPA tended to be less overconfident. ► Confidence of high-achieving learners was better aligned with past goal attainment.