An integrated framework for risk profiling of breast cancer patients following surgery

There are three novel contributions relating this paper to breast cancer cases. First, the widely used Nottingham prognostic index (NPI) is enhanced with additional clinical features from which prognostic assessments can be made more specific for patients in need of adjuvant treatment. This is shown with a cross matching of the NPI and a new prognostic index which also provides a two-dimensional visualisation of the complete patient database by risk of negative outcome. Second, a principled rule-extraction method, orthogonal search rule extraction, generates readily interpretable explanations of risk group allocations derived from a partial logistic artificial neural network with automatic relevance determination (PLANN-ARD). Third, 95% confidence intervals for individual predictions of survival are obtained by Monte Carlo sampling from the PLANN-ARD model.