Multiple stochastic correlations modeling for microgrid reliability and economic evaluation using pair-copula function

•Pair-copula function is used to model the stochastic correlations in a microgrid.•A Monte Carlo based technique is presented considering stochastic correlations.•Pair-copula function is used to generate a synthetic set of data.•Application results are promising when considering stochastic correlations.

The hourly wind speed, solar insolation and load power have probabilistic characteristics. However, among them, there are multiple stochastic correlations that are difficult to be modeled using traditional methods. This paper presents a stochastic correlation modeling method using the pair-copula function to capture the multiple stochastic correlations among wind speed, solar insolation and load power. This paper also presents the procedure for generating a synthetic set of stochastic correlated data based on pair-copula function. The proposed modeling method and data generating procedure are incorporated into microgrid reliability and economic evaluation using sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test on IEEE-RBTS shows the effectiveness of the pair-copula function based reliability and economic assessment method.

Graphical abstractFig. 4 shows the distribution of the net load of microgrid generated by Monte Carlo simulation under two scenarios. Scenario 1: without considering the stochastic correlations. Scenario 2: considering stochastic correlations.Figure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slide