Gray theory based energy saving potential evaluation and planning for distribution networks

•A systematic method to quantitatively evaluate the energy saving potential (ESP) of distribution networks.•An energy saving modification investment planning model to solve the investment allocation problem of distribution networks.•The energy loss gray correlation coefficient is proposed for energy saving planning which is based on Gray theory.

A systematic method is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the energy saving potential (ESP) combining a microscopic analysis and the macro statistics of the distribution network. An energy saving modification (ESM) investment planning model, constrained by the funds available, is developed based on the ESP evaluation method. In the model, the modification investment amount of each measure is set as a variable, and the core parameters including gray correlation coefficient, index inferior degree and loss reduction efficiency are obtained from gray correlation analysis. Given the investment constraints and weighting factors, the problem of energy saving investment allocation of the whole distribution system is solved within the fund constraint. An example shows that the proposed method is ideal for quantifying the loss reduction space and modification demand of distribution systems while improving the efficiency of investment for ESM.