Estimating the error variance after a pre-test for an interval restriction on the coefficients

This paper considers the estimation of the error variance after a pre-test of an interval restriction on the coefficients. We derive the exact finite sample risks of the interval restricted and pre-test estimators of the error variance, and examine the risk properties of the estimators to model misspecification through the omission of relevant regressors. It is found that the pre-test estimator performs better than the interval restricted estimator in terms of the risk properties in a large region of the parameter space; moreover, its risk performance is more robust with respect to the degrees of model misspecification. Furthermore, we propose a bootstrap procedure for estimating the risks of the estimators, to overcome the difficulty of computing the exact risks.