A latent variable regression model for capture–recapture data

Capture–recapture methods are used to estimate the prevalence of diseases in the field of epidemiology. The information used for estimation purposes are available from multiple lists, whereby giving rise to the problems of list dependence and heterogeneity. In this paper, modelling is focused on the heterogeneity part. We present a new binomial latent class model which takes into account both the observed and unobserved heterogeneity within capture–recapture data. We adopt the conditional likelihood approach and perform estimation via the EM algorithm. We also derive the mathematical expressions for the computation of the standard error of the unknown population size. An application to data on diabetes patients in a town in northern Italy is discussed.