GSA-based maximum likelihood estimation for threshold vector error correction model

The log-likelihood function of threshold vector error correction models is neither differentiable, nor smooth with respect to some parameters. Therefore, it is very difficult to implement maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the model. A new estimation method, which is based on a hybrid algorithm and MLE, is proposed to resolve this problem. The hybrid algorithm, referred to as genetic-simulated annealing, not only inherits aspects of genetic-algorithms (GAs), but also avoids premature convergence by incorporating elements of simulated annealing (SA). Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed method allows to estimate the parameters of larger cointegrating systems. Additionally, numerical results show that the hybrid algorithm does a better job than either SA or GA alone.