Wildland fire growth prediction method based on Multiple Overlapping Solution

Several Data-Driven Methods have been developed to try to solve the input parameters uncertainty when considering problems like Wildfires Prediction. In general, these methods operate over a large number of input parameters, and consider the most recent known behavior of wildfires. The purpose of the methods is to find the parameter set that best describes the real situation under consideration. Therefore, it is presumed that the same set of values could be used to predict the immediate future.However, because this kind of prediction is based on a single set of parameters, for those parameters that present a dynamic behavior (e.g. wind direction and speed), the new optimized values are not adequate to make a prediction.In this paper we propose an alternative method developed in a new branch of Data-Driven Prediction, which we called Multiple Overlapping Solution. This method combines statistical concepts and HPC (High Performance Computing) to obtain a higher quality prediction.

Research highlights▶ In many different scientific areas, the use of models to represent the physical system has become a common strategy. These models receive some input parameters representing the particular conditions and provide an output representing the evolution of the system. Usually, these models are integrated in simulation tools that can be executed on a computer. ▶ A particular case where models are very useful is the prediction of Forest Fire propagation. Forest fire is a very significant hazard that every year provokes huge looses from the environmental, economical, social and human point of view. Particularly dry and hot seasons seriously increase the risk of forest fires in the Mediterranean area. Therefore, the use of models is very relevant to estimate fire risk, and predict fire behavior. ▶ However, in many cases models present a series of limitations. Usually, such limitations are due to the need of a large number of input parameters. In many cases such parameters present some uncertainty due to the impossibility to measure all of them in real time and must be estimated from indirect measurements. Moreover, in most cases these models cannot be solved analytically and must be solved applying numerical methods that are only an approach to reality (still without considering the limitations that present the translations of these solutions when they are carried out by means of computers). ▶ Several methods based on data assimilation have been developed to optimize the input parameters. In general, these methods operate over a large number of input parameters, and, by mean of some kind of optimization, they focus on finding a unique parameter set that would describe the previous behavior in the best form. Therefore, it is hoped that the same set of values could be used to describe the immediate future. ▶ However, this kind of prediction is based on a single value of parameters and, as it has been said above, for those parameters that present a dynamic behavior the new optimized values cannot be adequate for the next step. ▶ Our method, called Statistical System for Forest Fire Management, is based on statistical concepts. Its goal is to find a pattern of the forest fire behavior, independently of the parameters values. In this method, each parameter is represented by a range of values with a particular cardinality for each one of them. All possible scenarios considering all possible combinations of input parameters values are generated and the propagation for each scenario is evaluated. All results are statically aggregated to determine the burning probability of each area. This aggregation is used to predict the burned area in the next step. ▶ To validate our method, we use a set of real prescribed burnings. Furthermore, we compare our method against two other methods. One of these methods was implemented by us for this work: GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). It corresponds to an adaptation of a hydrological method. ▶ The proposed system requires a large number of simulations, a reason why we decide to use a parallel-scheme to implement them. This way of working is different from traditional scheme of theory and experiment, which is the common form of science and engineering. The scientific computing approach is in continuous expansion, mainly through the analysis of mathematical models implemented on computers. Scientists and engineers develop computer programs that model the systems under study. This methodology is creating a new branch of science based on computational methods that is growing very fast. This approach is called Computational Science.