Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filter groundwater-data assimilation methods based on stochastic moment equations and Monte Carlo simulation

•Traditional EnKF assimilation requires computationally intensive MC simulations.•There is no general theory to determine a priori the number of MC realizations.•Traditional EnKF often suffers from filter inbreeding issues.•Coupling stochastic moment equations with EnKF overcomes these limitations.•We compare the performances and accuracies of the two approaches.

Traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation requires computationally intensive Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, which suffers from filter inbreeding unless the number of simulations is large. Recently we proposed an alternative EnKF groundwater-data assimilation method that obviates the need for sampling and is free of inbreeding issues. In our new approach, theoretical ensemble moments are approximated directly by solving a system of corresponding stochastic groundwater flow equations. Like MC-based EnKF, our moment equations (ME) approach allows Bayesian updating of system states and parameters in real-time as new data become available. Here we compare the performances and accuracies of the two approaches on two-dimensional transient groundwater flow toward a well pumping water in a synthetic, randomly heterogeneous confined aquifer subject to prescribed head and flux boundary conditions.