Estimating botnet virulence within mathematical models of botnet propagation dynamics

Mathematical models of botnet propagation dynamics are increasingly deemed to have potential for significant contribution to botnet mitigation. Botnet virulence, which comprises network vulnerability rate and network infection rate, is a key factor in those models. In this paper we discuss a practical approach that draws on epidemiological models in biology to estimate the botnet virulence in a network. Our research provides mathematical models of botnet propagation dynamics with concrete measures of botnet virulence, which make those models practical and hence employable in mitigation of real world botnets in a timely fashion. The approach is based on random sampling and follows a novel application of statistical learning and inference in a botnet-versus-network setting. We have implemented this research in the Matlab programming language. In this paper, we discuss an experimental evaluation of the effectiveness of this research with respect to botnet propagation dynamics realistically simulated in a GTNetS network simulation platform.