Use of formation pressure test results over a hydrate interval for long-term production forecasting at the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Implications of uncertainties

In the first part of this paper, the pressure and temperature measurements obtained using Schlumberger's Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT) conducted on the C2 interval in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert Well) are history matched, with the following three objectives: (i) to obtain a better understanding of hydrate decomposition and its reformation as conditions cross the p/T stability, (ii) to obtain formation properties (e.g., permeability) that are consistent with the measurements, and (iii) to explore the non-uniqueness in the history match; i.e., to explore the ranges of parameters that allow a reasonable match of the measured quantities. In the second part of this paper, long-term production performance is predicted, and the effect of the uncertain parameters on the predictions is demonstrated. The results are used to demonstrate the range of long-term production that may be expected, when a model is calibrated using the MDT data. Usefulness of short-term tests for long-term forecast prediction is then discussed.