Forecasting European trade mark and design filings: An innovative approach including exogenous variables and IP offices' events

Both national and international Intellectual Property (IP) offices need to adopt and use more reliable and efficient forecasting systems to improve their strategic planning and budgetary outlook. The European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO), through the European Observatory on Infringements of Intellectual Property Rights, has conducted a research to evaluate the forecasting methodologies currently used at IP offices. Novel forecasting approaches for trade marks and designs have also been analysed. This paper discusses the classic forecasting techniques and shows the improved results that are obtained when innovative techniques based on artificial intelligence with the inclusion of exogenous variables are used.