Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
478791 | European Journal of Operational Research | 2009 | 7 Pages |
Abstract
A new method of alternatives’ probabilities estimation under deficiency of expert numeric information (obtained from different sources) is proposed. The method is based on the Bayesian model of uncertainty randomization. Additional non-numeric, non-exact, and non-complete expert knowledge (NNN-knowledge, NNN-information) is used for final estimation of the alternatives’ probabilities. An illustrative example demonstrates the proposed method application to forecasting of oil shares price with the use of NNN-information obtained from different experts (investment firms).
Keywords
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Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Computer Science (General)
Authors
Nikolai Hovanov, Maria Yudaeva, Kirill Hovanov,