Sensitivity analysis for product design selection with an implicit value function

In product design selection the decision maker (DM) often does not have enough information about the end users’ needs to state the “preferences” with precision, as is required by many of the existing selection methods. We present, for the case where the DM gives estimates of the preferences, a concept for calculating a “robustness index.” The concept can be used with any iterative selection method that chooses a trial design for each iteration, and uses the DM’s preference parameters at that trial design to eliminate some design options which have lower value than the trial design. Such methods, like our previously published method, are applicable to cases where the DM’s value function is implicit. Our robustness index is a metric of the allowed variation between the actual and estimated preferences for which the set of non-eliminated trial designs (which could be singleton) will not change. The DM, through experience, can use the robustness index and other information generated in calculating the index to determine what action to take: make a final selection from the present set of non-eliminated designs; improve the precision of the preference estimates; or otherwise cope with the imprecision. We present an algorithm for finding the robustness index, and demonstrate and verify the algorithm with an engineering example and a numerical example.