Simulation of City-wide Replacement of Private Cars with Autonomous Taxis in Berlin

Autonomous taxi (AT) fleets have the potential to take over a significant amount of traffic handled nowadays by conventionally driven vehicles (CDV). In this paper, we simulate a city-wide replacement of private cars with AT fleets of various sizes. The simulation model comprises microscopic demand for all private car trips in Berlin (including incoming and outgoing traffic), out of which the internal ones are exclusively served by ATs. The proposed real-time AT dispatching algorithm was optimized to handle hundreds of thousands of vehicles and millions of requests at low computing times. Simulation results suggest, that a fleet of 100 000 vehicles will be enough to replace the car fleet in Berlin at a high service quality for customers. Based on this, one AT could replace the demand served by ten CDVs in Berlin.