A Physics-based Monte Carlo Earthquake Disaster Simulation Accounting for Uncertainty in Building Structure Parameters

Physics-based earthquake disaster simulations are expected to contribute to high-precision earthquake disaster prediction; however, such models are computationally expensive and the results typically contain significant uncertainties. Here we describe Monte Carlo simulations where 10,000 calculations were carried out with stochastically varied building structure parameters to model 3,038 buildings. We obtain the spatial distribution of the damage caused for each set of parameters, and analyze these data statistically to predict the extent of damage to buildings.