Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model

Results indicate that peak demand would rise by 30% due to GW mitigation efforts, but it can be effectively reduced by interventions in the residential sector. Heat pumps are the most cost effective heating technology, despite their lower efficiencies in cold climates. Better-insulated building envelopes have an important role in new houses, reducing by 14% the GW mitigation costs and suggesting that building codes should be more ambitious. The scenario considering denser urban developments has much lower GW mitigation costs, underscoring the importance of urban planning and potential changes in demand. The observed uptakes are contingent to the pricing of energy services being based on marginal costs and cost-optimising behaviour, and are less likely to take place with current market barriers. Finally, the emissions from reservoir creation alter the merit-order of electricity supply, favouring run-of-river power plants and suggesting that these emissions should be considered in GW mitigation scenarios.