Impact of thermal plant cycling on the cost-optimal composition of a regional electricity generation system

We report that in the Bio scenario, the cost-optimal system is dominated by wind power and flexible bio-based generation, whereas base-load generation dominates the Base load scenario, in line with the assumptions made, and the level of wind power is reduced. In the Base load scenario, 19% of the capacity is cycling-dependent, i.e., for this share of installed capacity, the choice of technology is different if cycling properties are included, compared to a case in which they are omitted. In the Bio scenario, in which flexible bio-based generation is less costly, 9% of the capacity is cycling-dependent. We conclude that it is critical to include cycling properties in investment modeling, to assess investments in thermal generation technologies that compete at utilization times in the range of 2000-5000 h.