Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
4916436 Applied Energy 2017 23 Pages PDF
Abstract
Assessing the impact of uncertainties on the estimated FMG performances, the net present value (NPV) of the optimal design was estimated to vary within the range 252.5-1471.6 M€ in response to changes of ±25% in investment costs and methanol price, and considering two different electricity price scenarios. In addition, a change in the interest rate from 5% to 20% was found to reduce the lower bound of the NPV to 181.3 M€ for reference operating conditions. The results suggest that the applied interest rate and operating conditions, in particular the methanol price, would have a much higher impact on the economic performance of the designs than corresponding uncertainties in investment costs. In addition, the study outcomes emphasize the importance of including systematic uncertainty analysis in the design optimization of FMG concepts.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Energy Energy Engineering and Power Technology
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