Cost heterogeneity and peak prediction in collective actions

The peak of participants indicates the success probability of collective actions. The mathematical model is built to explore the mechanism and prediction values of peaks. Besides of utility heterogeneity, cost heterogeneity is added into to simulate the situation of multiple heterogeneities in reality. Each simulation is run one hundred times repeatedly to get stable expectations and standard deviations of peaks under each combination of parameter values. Based on results of simulation, effects of related factors on peaks is investigated and estimated statistically, making it possible to predict peaks. In addition to forecasting the mean of peaks, the variability of peaks is estimated as well. Therefore, the distribution of peaks is predicted. Utility heterogeneity, cost heterogeneity and the Jointness of supply (J) exert significant effects on the distribution of peaks. It indicates that both utility heterogeneity and cost heterogeneity reduce the values and increase the variability (standard deviation) of peaks. Facilitating chain actions among individuals, heterogeneity promotes the outbreak of collective actions. However, it reduces the peaks and decreases the success probability of collective actions, while homogeneity increases the peak of participants and enhances the success chance of collective actions.