Short-term wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid model

Wind power is currently one of the types of renewable energy with a large generation capacity. However, operation of wind power generation is very challenging because of the intermittent and stochastic nature of the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting is a very important part of wind parks management and the integration of wind power into electricity grids. As an artificial intelligence algorithm, radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) has been successfully applied into solving forecasting problems. In this paper, a novel approach named WTT–SAM–RBFNN for short-term wind speed forecasting is proposed by applying wavelet transform technique (WTT) into hybrid model which hybrids the seasonal adjustment method (SAM) and the RBFNN. Real data sets of wind speed in Northwest China are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the proposed approach. To avoid the randomness caused by the RBFNN model or the RBFNN part of the hybrid model, all simulations in this study are repeated 30 times to get the average. Numerical results show that the WTT–SAM–RBFNN outperforms the persistence method (PM), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), RBFNN, hybrid SAM and RBFNN (SAM–RBFNN), and hybrid WTT and RBFNN (WTT–RBFNN). It is concluded that the proposed approach is an effective way to improve the prediction accuracy.

Graphical abstractFigure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slideHighlights► This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for wind speed forecasting. ► WTT is applied to remove the useless information in wind speed series. ► SAM and RBFNN are applied to predict the seasonal component and trend component in the wind speed series respectively. ► The real datasets in Northwest China are used to demonstrate the forecasting accuracy of the proposed approach. ► The empirical results show that the proposed approach can be an effective way and very promising.