Evolving Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy model based on switching to neighboring models

In this paper, we propose a new online identification approach for evolving Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. Here, for a TS model, a certain number of models as neighboring models are defined and then the TS model switches to one of them at each stage of evolving. We define neighboring models for an in-progress (current) TS model as its fairly evolved versions, which are different with it just in two fuzzy rules. To generate neighboring models for the current model, we apply specially designed split and merge operations. By each split operation, a fuzzy rule is replaced with two rules; while by each merge operation, two fuzzy rules combine to one rule. Among neighboring models, the one with the minimum sum of squared errors – on certain time intervals – replaces the current model.To reduce the computational load of the proposed evolving TS model, straightforward relations between outputs of neighboring models and that of current model are established. Also, to reduce the number of rules, we define and use first-order TS fuzzy models whose generated local linear models can be localized in flexible fuzzy subspaces. To demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed identification approach, the efficiency of the evolving TS model is studied in prediction of monthly sunspot number and forecast of daily electrical power consumption. The prediction and modeling results are compared with that of some important existing evolving fuzzy systems.

Graphical abstractFigure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slideHighlights► We suggest a novel strategy to online identification of a TS fuzzy model. ► An in-progress TS fuzzy model evolves by switching to one of neighboring models. ► Neighboring models are defined through a specially designed split or merge operations. ► In order to reduce the computational load, some recursive equations are computed for updating procedures. ► The proposed approach is applied to two different case studies: sunspot number and power consumption.