Is Digital Thread/Digital Twin Affordable? A Systemic Assessment of the Cost of DoD's Latest Manhattan Project

This paper analyzes challenges the U.S. Air Force will inevitably face as it implements Digital Thread/Digital Twin, a model-centric approach to weapon system development, to include developing the needed computational capability, software tools, and workforce to leverage that capability. A Cost Constructive Model (COCOMO) II based analysis is performed to roughly estimate the scope, cost, and time required to develop robust Digital Thread/Digital Twin models for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) aircraft. The authors determine that such a thoroughly unprecedented model development effort will require a national commitment on par with the Manhattan Project, which yielded the first atomic bomb.