Statistics-based Models of Flood-causing Cyclones for the Baltic Sea Region

Coastal floods are natural extreme phenomena that have rare occurrence and small duration. For reconstruction of different scenarios of these events synthetic cyclones can be used. In this paper, statistics-based approaches for synthetic cyclone creation are applied for reconstruction of coastal floods with rare occurrence in Saint-Petersburg. The model developed in the frame of this research is based on analysis and clusterization of historical 50-year dataset for cyclones over Baltic Sea. As a result, realistic pressure profile (RPP) model of cyclones with specified parameters was proposed. It can be used for reconstruction of historical coastal floods and estimation of potential flood parameters for different cases of cyclone movement.