Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
4978247 | Environmental Modelling & Software | 2017 | 11 Pages |
Abstract
Participatory modelling must often deal with the challenge of ambiguity when diverse stakeholders do not share a common understanding of the problem and measures for its solution. In this paper, we propose a framework and a methodology to elicit ambiguities among different stakeholders by using a participatory Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling approach. Our approach consists of four steps undertaken with stakeholders: (1) co-construction of a consensual conceptual model of their socio-ecological system, (2) translation of the model into a consensual Bayesian Net structure, (3) individual parametrization of conditional probabilities, and (4) elicitation of ambiguity through the use of scenarios. We tested this methodology on the ambiguity surrounding the effect of an ecological process on a potential innovation in biological control, and it proved useful in eliciting ambiguity. Further research could explore more conflictual or controversial ambiguities to test this methodology in other settings.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Software
Authors
Nicolas Salliou, Cécile Barnaud, Aude Vialatte, Claude Monteil,