Micro-cogeneration versus conventional technologies: Considering model uncertainties in assessing the energy benefits

This article makes a contribution by demonstrating how these model uncertainties may be propagated to the simulation results of a micro-cogeneration system for comparison to a reference scenario using a case study. This case study compares the energy performance of a fuel-cell based micro-cogeneration system serving only domestic hot water demands to an efficient reference scenario where the conventional methods for providing electrical and thermal demands are considered to be a central gas-fired combined-cycle plant and a condensing tankless water heater respectively. The simulation results demonstrated that if model uncertainties were ignored, it would have been possible to demonstrate that the considered micro-cogeneration system was more efficient than the reference scenario for average consumption levels of domestic hot water. However, when model uncertainties were considered, the efficiency of the considered micro-cogeneration system could not reliably exceed that of the reference scenario by serving the domestic hot water needs of a single-family home.