A Bayesian analysis of the thermal challenge problem

A major question for the application of computer models is Does the computer model adequately represent reality? Viewing the computer models as a potentially biased representation of reality, Bayarri et al. [M. Bayarri, J. Berger, R. Paulo, J. Sacks, J. Cafeo, J. Cavendish, C. Lin, J. Tu, A framework for validation of computer models, Technometrics 49 (2) (2007) 138–154] develop the simulator assessment and validation engine (SAVE) method as a general framework for answering this question. In this paper, we apply the SAVE method to the challenge problem which involves a thermal computer model designed for certain devices. We develop a statement of confidence that the devices modeled can be applied in intended situations.