Towards robust technology roadmapping: How to diagnose the vulnerability of organisational plans

•We proposed an approach to diagnosing the vulnerability of organisational plans.•FAR was employed to generate and evaluate future scenarios.•ANP was used to measure the ripple impacts of activities on organisational plans.•A case study of the plan for developing home security systems is presented.•The proposed approach will enable robust technology roadmapping under uncertainty.

While technology roadmapping has been the subject of many previous studies, a general lack of attention to the issues of uncertainty exists, thus leading to difficulties in consensus-building in the follow-up activity phase of technology roadmapping. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to diagnosing the vulnerability of organisational plans against complex future conditions. For this, first, field anomaly relaxation (FAR) is employed to generate and evaluate future scenarios in a structured manner. Second, analytic network process (ANP) is used to measure the ripple impacts of activities on organisational plans by considering the interaction between activities. Lastly, a vulnerability assessment map is developed to provide a comprehensive and balanced view of organisational plans. The systematic process and quantitative outcomes the proposed approach offers will assist robust technology roadmapping in the face of growing uncertainties associated with the future. A case study of the organisational plan for developing home security systems is presented.