A social ecology of civil conflict: Shifting allegiances in the conflict in Sierra Leone

Drawing on data from a survey of 1043 ex-combatants who took part in the civil war in Sierra Leone (1991-2002) this paper explores the conditions that predict a key outcome in the conflict literature: defection, or side-switching between the various organizations at war. This paper advances arguments drawn from the organizational ecology school and works to extend key theories related to “Blau Space” to the study of civil war. Using a series of logistic regression procedures, this paper tests various competing hypotheses against key contributions of the organizational ecology school. Key findings of this work suggest support for major hypotheses in this literature as net of important theoretical conditions, defections are most likely when individuals are either demographically atypical of their organization (niche edge) or most susceptible to competition for their services by other groups (niche overlap).