Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5057918 Economics Letters 2017 4 Pages PDF
Abstract

•Presence of a unit root in individual time series is required for cointegration.•Cointegration makes standard unit root tests more likely to reject a unit root null.•The paradox arises because cointegration induces a moving average (MA) component.•The cointegration-induced MA component causes unit root tests to be oversized.

Cointegration among times series paradoxically makes it more likely that a unit test will reject the unit root null hypothesis on the individual series. This occurs because at least one series in the system has a negative moving average component.

Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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