A comparative analysis of cellular automata models for simulation of small urban areas in Galicia, NW Spain

Urban growth models developed in the second half of the 20th century have allowed for a better understanding of the dynamics of urban growth. Among these models, cellular automata (CA) have become particularly relevant because of their ability to reproduce complex spatial and temporal dynamics at a global scale using local and simple rules. In the last three decades, many urban CA models that proved useful in the simulation of urban growth in large cities have been implemented. This paper analyzes the ability of some of the main urban CA models to simulate growth in a study area with different characteristics from those in which these models have been commonly applied, such as slow and low urban growth. The comparison of simulation results has allowed us to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of each model and to identify the models that are best suited to the characteristics of the study area. Results suggest that models which simulate several land uses can capture better land use dynamics in the study area but need more objective and reliable calibration methods.

► Modeling areas with slow and low urban growth requires detailed data or long periods. ► Highest validation measures are obtained with models that consider several urban uses. ► The complexity of these models requires more objective calibration methods. ► For the study area, White’s models generate urban patterns most similar to real ones.