Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5073018 Games and Economic Behavior 2006 26 Pages PDF
Abstract

We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.

Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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