Accrual reversals, earnings and stock returns

We show that accruals consist of at least two distinct underlying processes, one with positive serial correlation and the other with negative serial correlation. We also find that the accrual reversals characterizing the negatively serially correlated process are predominantly good accruals that correctly anticipate fluctuations in working capital. Accrual estimation error is the least persistent component of earnings, while accruals relating to firm growth are less persistent than cash flows. Finally, the mispricing of accruals appears to be driven by a combination of accrual estimation error and firm growth.