Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5095862 | Journal of Econometrics | 2015 | 18 Pages |
Abstract
We develop methods for testing whether, in a finite sample, forecasts from nested models are equally accurate. Most prior work has focused on a null of equal accuracy in population - basically, whether the additional coefficients of the larger model are zero. Our asymptotic approximation instead treats the coefficients as non-zero but small, such that, in a finite sample, forecasts from the small and large models are expected to be equally accurate. We derive the limiting distributions of tests of equal mean square error, and develop a bootstrap for inference. Simulations show that our procedures have good size and power properties.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Mathematics
Statistics and Probability
Authors
Todd E. Clark, Michael W. McCracken,