Long-term performance assessment and design of offshore structures

•A copula approach is proposed to assess the long term performance of offshore structures under environmental changes.•A discretized subcopula approach is presented to identify the most critical sea state parameter values in a dynamic analysis.•Advantages of the copula approach over traditional models are revealed for multivariate ocean environmental parameters.•The copula approach is found to be more efficient than traditional methods for long term performance assessment.

The design of an offshore structure is highly dependent on the operating environmental parameters, where a realistic statistical model of the latter is essential to produce a representative estimate of the performance and failure probability. Establishing an accurate model of the offshore environment can be a challenging task. The use of simple probabilistic models may lead to biased results in the stochastic structural analysis since the environmental impact to an existing offshore structure is associated with a wide range of inter-dependent factors. In this paper, the specification of long-term design loads for offshore structures considering multiple environmental factors is investigated where the dependency between several commonly used sea state parameters are instituted through a copula-based multivariate probabilistic model. Several copula functions, capable of modeling both linear and non-linear dependence structures, are considered. The developed multivariate model based on copula concept is compared with the available approaches in the literature using actual environmental data. The modeled sea state parameters are then utilized to characterize the sea load for the reliability analysis of a real jacket structure where the prediction of the long term load is derived in a discretized form. The applicability of this approach in a high dimensional multivariate problem is also discussed.