Construction of decision rules for early detection of a developing concrete arch dam failure scenario. A discriminant approach

•New methodology for early detection of a potential concrete dam failure scenario.•Construction of a decision rules through a linear discriminant analysis.•Classification of physical quantities, measured by the automated monitoring system.•Analysis for dam safety assessment in real time.

To improve the effectiveness of concrete dam safety control in real time, a method is presented for the construction of decision rules for the early detection of developing failure scenarios. The decision rules are based on the use of linear discriminant models developed with data obtained through mathematical models of the dam’s behaviour. The aim is to combine the physical quantities measured by the automated monitoring system of the dam, appropriately weighted, into a new single index allowing the classification of the observations into one of two classes (normal behaviour and development of a failure scenario).