Temporal-spatial variation analysis of agricultural biomass and its policy implication as an alternative energy in northeastern China

Effective spatial-temporal analysis of the availability of agricultural biomass is crucial for cost-effective development of bioenergy. Using statistical data, simulation modeling, and a dynamic analysis framework, the authors assess the potential and distribution of regional agricultural biomass in Heilongjiang, China. The results indicate 32.48 × 106 t of agricultural biomass were available in 2003; this soared to 77.13 × 106 t in 2013. Gray correlation analysis demonstrated that precipitation, total population, mechanical power and agricultural planting structure largely influenced the availability of biomass resources. The support of corn oil storage plays an important role of agricultural planting structure. Statistical and Net Primary Production data were used to study the dynamic change in the availability of agricultural biomass. The growth rate of available biomass exceeded 2 t km−2 y−1 in most areas of the Sanjiang Plain, and ranged from − 1.5 to 2.0 t km−2 y−1 in the Songnen Plain. The establishment of a scientific resource management and scheduling platform is suggested to achieve the dynamic allocation and scheduling of agricultural biomass that will improve resource stability. The methods here can also be applied to other regions and provide baseline data for local authorities to further consider a strategy for bioenergy planning and development.