Decomposition of the factors influencing export fluctuation in China's new energy industry based on a constant market share model

In this study, we investigate the factors influencing the fluctuation in the export trade of China's new energy industry, and the export trade fluctuations in its subdivision industries, using a constant market share (CMS) model and UN Comtrade export data for China's new energy industry from 1996 to 2014. The study reveals that the import demands of the international market for China's new energy industry dominate the fluctuations in the export trade of the industry. Moreover, there are different reasons for the fluctuations in the different export markets of China's new energy industry as well as the export trade fluctuations in the subdivision industries. To promote the development of China's new energy industry, numerous policy suggestions are proposed. These include culturing domestic markets, solving problems in the grid-connection and consumption of new energies, and carrying out international cooperation. Some corresponding suggestions for subdivision industries of the new energy industry are also presented.