Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5106331 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2017 | 9 Pages |
Abstract
The paper presents a model for forecasting association football scores. The model uses a Weibull inter-arrival-times-based count process and a copula to produce a bivariate distribution of the numbers of goals scored by the home and away teams in a match. We test it against a variety of alternatives, including the simpler Poisson distribution-based model and an independent version of our model. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is illustrated using, first, calibration curves, then a Kelly-type betting strategy that is applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market and to the over-under 2.5 goals market. The new model provides an improved fit to the data relative to previous models, and results in positive returns to betting.
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Authors
Georgi Boshnakov, Tarak Kharrat, Ian G. McHale,