Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5106379 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2017 | 21 Pages |
Abstract
We develop a time-varying HAR model where both the predictors and the regression coefficients are allowed to change over time, and use it to forecast the realized volatility in the fast-growing agricultural commodity futures markets of China. The proposed model is constructed by incorporating all potential predictors in a time-varying HAR framework, and giving the independent normal-gamma autoregressive (NGAR) process priors to the regression coefficients. The out-of-sample forecast results show that the proposed HAR model with time-varying sparsity improves the forecast performances substantially relative to both the simple HAR model and more sophisticated HAR-type models in almost all cases. Finally, the forecast performance of the proposed model is robust to the alternative proxies of volatility.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Business, Management and Accounting
Business and International Management
Authors
Fengping Tian, Ke Yang, Langnan Chen,