The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo

•An error correction model is built to explain air freight development.•The main determinants are merchandise trade and the share of manufactures here in.•Air freight yields and oil prices further explain the development of air freight.•Scenarios are created to analyze the future development of air freight.

Air cargo plays a crucial role in the air transport chain and in the globalized economy. As for other modes of transport, the demand for air cargo is a derived demand. Previous studies showed that the main determinants of air cargo demand are merchandise trade and the share of manufactures in merchandise trade. This paper aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by additionally taking the influence of air freight yields and oil prices into account when modelling the global air cargo development. Furthermore, it provides an insight into the future development of air cargo. Forecasts until 2023 are made based on a number of scenarios for the main determinants of air cargo demand. Moreover, an insight is provided into the current air cargo market, including traffic levels and different types of actors and traffic flows. The results are useful not only for academics but also for industry stakeholders for which air cargo is an important contributor to profit and/or cash levels.