Now you see them, now you don't: Defining and using a flexible chronology of sites for spatial analysis of Roman settlement in the Dutch river area

In this paper, we present a method to deal with poorly dated site inventories for purposes of (supra-) regional settlement pattern analysis. We created a site database for the Roman period in the Dutch River Area on the basis of existing digital inventories, and analyzed the quality of dating information provided in those inventories in order to better understand the development of settlement patterns during the Roman period. We did this by applying principles of aoristic analysis, dividing the time spans assigned to each registered artefact over the archaeological periods considered, and then simulating the probability of finds belonging to a specific archaeological period. Using this method, it is possible to judge the quality of dating information per site, and to analyze patterns of settlement density and site location while taking into account the uncertainty of dating information. Our analyses broadly confirm earlier studies, but they also provide a more solid, quantitative basis to previous work. Furthermore, they highlight the limitations of using the currently available information for settlement pattern analysis.