Towards a low-carbon electric power system in Mexico

The energy sector is one of the largest sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Mexico and the World due to the intensive use of fossil fuels. This article is developed on and examines from an environmental and economical approach an alternative scenario towards a Mexican Low Carbon Electric Power System, by analyzing 36 GHG mitigation options on the electric demand side, namely − 23 for an energy-efficient use and 4 for distributed generation, across the residential, commercial, public, industrial and energy sectors and, 9 options of electric power generation with Renewable Energy Sources (RES) on the electric power supply side. Our results reveal that, regarding the GHG baseline, towards 2020, this alternative scenario minimizes 33% of the GHG emissions, and towards 2035 these emissions are dramatically minimized at 79%. Furthermore, results also show that there is a possibility to reach a GHG peak in the electric power industry in very few years with this alternative scenario. Moreover, it is found that this alternative scenario will entail no cost in the analyzed period; on the contrary, it creates a global economic benefit of over 8000 MUSD, where 74% is related to the application of the mitigation options in the electric demand sectors and the remaining 26% comes from RES technologies in the electric power supply. Results show that the implementation of this alternative scenario requires an incremental investment of almost than 2 Billion USD/year within the analysis period. Lastly, it is shown that national goals for the electric power sector that have been recently established in the General Climate Change Law, the Energy Transition Law as well as the proposed Intended Nationally Determined Contribution in the Paris COP21 Agreements are feasible for achievement in this alternative scenario.