Modeling of the behavior of alternative fuel vehicle buyers. A model for the location of alternative refueling stations

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the infrastructure to be made available for refueling alternative fuel vehicles as a function of the profitability thresholds required by the investment. A methodology has been devised based on sales forecasts for alternative fuel vehicles. These methods use discrete choice models in which the factor of refueling infrastructure, rather than being considered simply as one more attribute of the model, acts as a constraint on the choice set for vehicle buyers. This methodology is used to estimate the infrastructure of hydrogen refueling stations and electricity charging stations for Spain (8,112 population centers) in 2030. Evolution of fuel cell vehicles over the years 2016 and 2030 is also estimated and compared with forecasts for countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom.