Estimating risk effects of driving distraction: A dynamic errorable car-following model

•Develop a dynamic car-following model to estimate the probabilistic risk associated with distracted driving.•Analyze and synthesize a naturalistic driver and traffic database to identify essential driver behavior.•Use dynamic time warping algorithm to examine the probabilistic nature of distracted driving.•Validate the proposed car-following model to incorporate the probabilities of driver distraction.

This paper aims to estimate the risk effects of distracted driving, by incorporating a dynamic, data-driven car-following model in an algorithmic framework. The model was developed to predict the situational risk associated with distracted driving. To obtain longitudinal driving patterns, this paper analyzed and synthesized the NGSIM naturalistic driver and traffic database, through a dynamic time warping algorithm, to identify essential driver behavior and characteristics. Cognitive psychology concepts, distracted driving simulator, and experimental data were adapted to examine the probabilistic nature of distracted driving due to internal vehicle distractions. An extended microscopic car-following model was developed and validated, which can be fully integrated with the naturalistic data and incorporate the probabilities of driver distraction.