Modeling speed-flow relationship and merging behavior in work zone merging areas

This paper aims to investigate the speed-flow relationship and drivers’ merging behavior in work zone merging areas. It first proposes lane-based speed-flow models, incorporating traffic conflicts among the lanes. It proceeds to develop a desired merging location model determining where drivers start to consider merging and a binary logit model that is applied to estimate the probabilities that drivers will merge into current adjacent gaps. A merging distance model is also proposed to find the 85th percentile of the merging distance. Finally, real work zone traffic data in Singapore are used to calibrate and evaluate the developed models. The findings show that the speed-flow relationship in the through lane is affected by the merge lane traffic under uncongested circumstances. Satisfactory results indicate that the merging behavioral models can competently predict drivers’ merging behavior and that the merging distance model could provide accurate information for traffic engineers to calculate the merge lane length.

► Propose the lane-based speed-flow models, incorporating traffic conflicts among the lanes. ► Develop a desired merging location model and a binary logit model to predict drivers’ merging behavior. ► Develop a merging distance model to find the 85th percentile of the merging distance. ► The findings show that the speed-flow relationship in the through lane is affected by the merge lane traffic under uncongested circumstances. ► The proposed models can competently predict drivers’ merging behavior in work zone merging area.