A random-parameter hazard-based model to understand household evacuation timing behavior

The goal of this paper is to develop a random-parameter hazard-based model to understand hurricane evacuation timing by individual households. The choice of departure time during disasters is a complex dynamic process and depends on the risk that the hazard represents, the characteristics of the household and the built environment features. However, the risk responses are heterogeneous across the households; this unobserved heterogeneity is captured through random parameters in the model. The model is estimated with data from Hurricane Ivan including households from Alabama, Louisiana, Florida and Mississippi. It is found that the variables related to household location, destination characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, evacuation notice and household decision making are key determinants of the departure time. As such the developed model provides some fundamental inferences about hurricane evacuation timing behavior.

► A hazard-based duration model is developed to understand household-level hurricane evacuation timing behavior. ► The model incorporates random-parameters to represent the unobserved heterogeneity across households particularly with respect to risk responses. ► Provides fundamental inferences on hurricane evacuation timing behavior from a model estimated using Hurricane Ivan evacuation data. ► Results indicate that the variables related to household location, destination characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, evacuation notice, and household decision making are key determinants of the evacuation time.