Decision maps: A framework for multi-criteria decision support under severe uncertainty

In complex strategic decision-making situations the need for well-structured support arises. To evaluate decision alternatives, information about the situation and its development must be determined, managed and processed by the best available experts. For various types of information different reasoning principles have been developed: deterministic, probabilistic, fuzzy and techniques for reasoning under ignorance (i.e., the likelihood of an event cannot be quantified). We propose a new approach based on Decision Maps supporting decision makers under fundamental uncertainty by generating descriptions of different possible situation developments (scenarios) in a distributed manner. The scenarios are evaluated using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques.

Research highlights► Robust decision support in strategic decisions with heterogeneous information. ► Integration of scenario-based reasoning and multi-criteria decision techniques. ► Distributed scenario construction relying on local domain knowledge. ► Construction of plausible, consistent, coherent, and relevant scenarios. ► Scenario management to control the number of scenarios.