Exploring the determinants of the OSS market potential: The case of the Apache web server

A theoretical framework is proposed for the better understanding of the OSS global diffusion. Following a case study approach, the Apache web server's market potential is estimated, forecasted and examined in terms of the socio-economic factors determining its diffusion, across different economic environments in developed versus developing countries. Market saturation is explored under the prism of three theoretical perspectives: the institutional, the endogenous and the exogenous growth theories. Findings suggest that Apache market saturation levels depend on both endogenous and exogenous to a country factors and that institutional quality plays an important role to the market potential. Implications for theory and public policy are discussed.

► Dynamic diffusion model for the estimation and forecasting of Apache server. ► Time variant market saturation. ► Theoretical framework to explain market saturation. ► Endogenous, exogenous and institutional country level factors identified. ► Differences in saturation between developed and developing countries.