An integrated model for analyzing the development of the 4G telecommunications market in Taiwan

•We analyze customers' preferences for mobile telecommunications technology.•We address possible scenarios for the development of 2G, 3G, WiMAX, and LTE in Taiwan.•We forecast the sales volume for the four telecommunications technologies in Taiwan.

Previous studies of development trends in the telecommunications industry have estimated market potential but have seldom integrated analyses of customer preferences and macro-environmental factors (political, economic, social, and technological analyses). In order to more accurately analyze 4G technological trends and market penetration and provide implications for businesses and policymakers, we use conjoint analysis to analyze customers' preferences for telecommunications technology and integrate the results with data from scenario analysis and the Delphi method to address possible scenarios for the development of 2G, 3G, Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), and long-term evolution (LTE) in Taiwan. We then use the innovation diffusion model to forecast the sales volume for these four technologies in Taiwan over the next 10 years. Finally, we provide suggestions for policymaking and strategic actions for 4G stakeholders.